Why The United States' Much Ballyhooed Military Will Not Be Able to Defeat ISIS With or Without "Boots on the Ground"

"One small attack on an oil pipeline in southeast Iraq, conducted for an estimated $2,000 dollars, cost the Iraqi government more than $500 million in lost oil revenues. That is a return on investment of 25 million percent."

-John Robb: "Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization"

In the popular discourse surrounding American military interventions little effort is spent on educating the public about who the enemies are or what their history, goals, strategy, and tactics are. We see this with the media punditry surrounding ISIS today. There is all this talk about whether or not boots on the ground will be necessary, whether this is or is not a war (as supposed to what?), et cetera. What I saw painfully little of in the media coverage, was discussion of how ISIS formed, its history up to that point, or how it was likely to react to the different strategies that its enemies are contemplating deploying against it.

I suppose some of this could be the result of simple racism: "motivation?!, history?!, tactics?! These are just terrorists who hate us for our freedom what difference does it make what they are hoping to achieve or how? Plus they are, you know, brown and they pray kind of funny. Just let our obviously superior war machine crush them and be done with it." However, at least in this case, I think this discussion is held back more by the frightening implications it would have.

Indeed, looking at ISIS's history and motivations reveals that they have little to fear from the American military, boots on the ground or no. ISIS emerged as an offshoot of Al-Quadea in Iraq and cut its teeth fighting against the US Occupation. Much like the other Iraqi insurgent groups, it was able to employ anonymity, systems disruption, and asymetric warfare tactics to prevent US military operations (not matter how successful in isolation) from meaningfully advancing the US and Iraqi governments long term political goals, which is the ultimate criteria by which the success or failure of a military strategy must be judged.

America is often said to have the most capable military in the world. This is definitely true in the narrow sense of operational capability; no group can match the US Military where the bullets are actually flying. The words 'tactics' and 'strategy' are often used interchangeably, but they actually have importantly distinct meanings. Strategy refers to overarching goals and long run plans to achieve them; tactics refers to the immediate small scale objectives and operations that (hopefully) move one closer to achieving strategic goals. I would suggest that the US military is unmatched tactically, but ISIS's strategy will make mincemeat of it, nonetheless.

The US military's role (and that of any modern military) is to take and hold territory, it does this with unsurpassed efficacy. However, the taking and holding of territory, a tactic, is only really useful as part of a greater strategy of making that territory passive and economically productive. However, in the context a modern post industrial economy doing this requires massive supply chains, physical and administrative infrastructure, and logistical networks. These can stretch literally around the globe and certainly stretch far beyond what even the US military is capable of defending.

These form the soft underbelly of the US military industrial complex. During the US Occupation, no matter how effectively the US military defended the territory it was charged with defending, the insurgency could easily attack targets outside of this territory, sabotaging or destroying infrastructure, undermining these logistical networks, and creating a climate of chaos that prevented the development of US military occupied territory into anything peaceful or economically productive. It took nearly a decade for Iraqi oil production to be restored to pre-invasion levels let alone to increase, and that was in a climate of increasing global oil prices that cannot be counted on this time around. If ISIS and other groups like it did this to the US military once, they can do it again. Of course, the presentation of such bleak prospects to the American public would not do much to sure up public support for intervention, which I am inclined to think is not as strong as the polls are indicating.

Right now, public sentiment is reeling from seeing two videos of ISIS beheading American citizens. That something must be done is the immediate and impulsive reaction. However, the long run fundamentals of American public sentiment are that the United States is neither responsible for or capable of making the entire a world a safe place, that the government's justifications for military action cannot be trusted, and that foreign warfare costs much more in blood and treasure than it achieves in improved security. Even if the US military were capable of defeating ISIS (which it is not), it would take longer to defeat ISIS than it will for the public sentiments fundamentals to reassert themselves.

Links October 9 2014

From eco-restore.net: some thoughts on how to measure biodiversity restoration

From the New Yorker: An interesting article on the role of immigrant networks in the American Chinese restaurant industry (thanks to Marginal Revolution for posting this)

From Bloomberg View: Asking whether or not the previous five years of pretty consistent stock market gains are drawing to a close, includes some good lines on whether this is a slowdown or just a return of higher volatility

A Good Marginal Revolution Post on Non-Compete Agreements and Prisoner's Dillema

Here

In California, however, the courts have consistently refused to enforce non-compete agreements. An employee who leaves one company can join a new company and start work the next day and they can do so regardless of any agreement.
Silicon Valley could not operate if non-compete agreements were enforced. Silicon Valley is a hyper-mobile workforce. Moreover, it’s precisely in the circulation of workers that Silicon Valley has one of its advantages the diffusion of new ideas. The key to Silicon Valley and much innovation today is the diffusion, the combination, the integration of different sorts of knowledge and worker mobility has been a big part of this. Not just worker mobility between firms in Silicon Valley but also immigrants, circulation between different countries, university-firm partnerships and so forth.
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/06/non-compete-clauses.html#sthash.YSh2DpSU.dpuf

In California, however, the courts have consistently refused to enforce non-compete agreements. An employee who leaves one company can join a new company and start work the next day and they can do so regardless of any agreement.
Silicon Valley could not operate if non-compete agreements were enforced. Silicon Valley is a hyper-mobile workforce. Moreover, it’s precisely in the circulation of workers that Silicon Valley has one of its advantages the diffusion of new ideas. The key to Silicon Valley and much innovation today is the diffusion, the combination, the integration of different sorts of knowledge and worker mobility has been a big part of this. Not just worker mobility between firms in Silicon Valley but also immigrants, circulation between different countries, university-firm partnerships and so forth.
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/06/non-compete-clauses.html#sthash.YSh2DpSU.dpuf

In California, however, the courts have consistently refused to enforce non-compete agreements. An employee who leaves one company can join a new company and start work the next day and they can do so regardless of any agreement.

Silicon Valley could not operate if non-compete agreements were enforced. Silicon Valley is a hyper-mobile workforce. Moreover, it’s precisely in the circulation of workers that Silicon Valley has one of its advantages the diffusion of new ideas. The key to Silicon Valley and much innovation today is the diffusion, the combination, the integration of different sorts of knowledge and worker mobility has been a big part of this. Not just worker mobility between firms in Silicon Valley but also immigrants, circulation between different countries, university-firm partnerships and so forth.

An excellent post. I would add, that I think it is important to understand the proliferation of non-compete agreements as part of a larger move by corporations to tighten control of "intellectual property" and restrict the flow of ideas and media to regulated channels. While this does have frightening implications for the social process of innovation, it also represent a potentially rather rewarding opportunity for those who can find ways around the tightening controls.

In California, however, the courts have consistently refused to enforce non-compete agreements. An employee who leaves one company can join a new company and start work the next day and they can do so regardless of any agreement.
Silicon Valley could not operate if non-compete agreements were enforced. Silicon Valley is a hyper-mobile workforce. Moreover, it’s precisely in the circulation of workers that Silicon Valley has one of its advantages the diffusion of new ideas. The key to Silicon Valley and much innovation today is the diffusion, the combination, the integration of different sorts of knowledge and worker mobility has been a big part of this. Not just worker mobility between firms in Silicon Valley but also immigrants, circulation between different countries, university-firm partnerships and so forth.
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/06/non-compete-clauses.html#sthash.YSh2DpSU.dpuf

In California, however, the courts have consistently refused to enforce non-compete agreements. An employee who leaves one company can join a new company and start work the next day and they can do so regardless of any agreement. - See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/06/non-compete-clauses.html#sthash.YSh2DpSU.dpuf

In California, however, the courts have consistently refused to enforce non-compete agreements. An employee who leaves one company can join a new company and start work the next day and they can do so regardless of any agreement.
Silicon Valley could not operate if non-compete agreements were enforced. Silicon Valley is a hyper-mobile workforce. Moreover, it’s precisely in the circulation of workers that Silicon Valley has one of its advantages the diffusion of new ideas. The key to Silicon Valley and much innovation today is the diffusion, the combination, the integration of different sorts of knowledge and worker mobility has been a big part of this. Not just worker mobility between firms in Silicon Valley but also immigrants, circulation between different countries, university-firm partnerships and so forth.
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/06/non-compete-clauses.html#sthash.YSh2DpSU.dpuf

In California, however, the courts have consistently refused to enforce non-compete agreements. An employee who leaves one company can join a new company and start work the next day and they can do so regardless of any agreement.
Silicon Valley could not operate if non-compete agreements were enforced. Silicon Valley is a hyper-mobile workforce. Moreover, it’s precisely in the circulation of workers that Silicon Valley has one of its advantages the diffusion of new ideas. The key to Silicon Valley and much innovation today is the diffusion, the combination, the integration of different sorts of knowledge and worker mobility has been a big part of this. Not just worker mobility between firms in Silicon Valley but also immigrants, circulation between different countries, university-firm partnerships and so forth.
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/06/non-compete-clauses.html#sthash.YSh2DpSU.dpuf

In California, however, the courts have consistently refused to enforce non-compete agreements. An employee who leaves one company can join a new company and start work the next day and they can do so regardless of any agreement.
Silicon Valley could not operate if non-compete agreements were enforced. Silicon Valley is a hyper-mobile workforce. Moreover, it’s precisely in the circulation of workers that Silicon Valley has one of its advantages the diffusion of new ideas. The key to Silicon Valley and much innovation today is the diffusion, the combination, the integration of different sorts of knowledge and worker mobility has been a big part of this. Not just worker mobility between firms in Silicon Valley but also immigrants, circulation between different countries, university-firm partnerships and so forth.
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/06/non-compete-clauses.html#sthash.YSh2DpSU.dpuf

In California, however, the courts have consistently refused to enforce non-compete agreements. An employee who leaves one company can join a new company and start work the next day and they can do so regardless of any agreement.
Silicon Valley could not operate if non-compete agreements were enforced. Silicon Valley is a hyper-mobile workforce. Moreover, it’s precisely in the circulation of workers that Silicon Valley has one of its advantages the diffusion of new ideas. The key to Silicon Valley and much innovation today is the diffusion, the combination, the integration of different sorts of knowledge and worker mobility has been a big part of this. Not just worker mobility between firms in Silicon Valley but also immigrants, circulation between different countries, university-firm partnerships and so forth.
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/06/non-compete-clauses.html#sthash.YSh2DpSU.dpuf

In California, however, the courts have consistently refused to enforce non-compete agreements. An employee who leaves one company can join a new company and start work the next day and they can do so regardless of any agreement.
Silicon Valley could not operate if non-compete agreements were enforced. Silicon Valley is a hyper-mobile workforce. Moreover, it’s precisely in the circulation of workers that Silicon Valley has one of its advantages the diffusion of new ideas. The key to Silicon Valley and much innovation today is the diffusion, the combination, the integration of different sorts of knowledge and worker mobility has been a big part of this. Not just worker mobility between firms in Silicon Valley but also immigrants, circulation between different countries, university-firm partnerships and so forth.
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/06/non-compete-clauses.html#sthash.YSh2DpSU.dpuf

In California, however, the courts have consistently refused to enforce non-compete agreements. An employee who leaves one company can join a new company and start work the next day and they can do so regardless of any agreement.
Silicon Valley could not operate if non-compete agreements were enforced. Silicon Valley is a hyper-mobile workforce. Moreover, it’s precisely in the circulation of workers that Silicon Valley has one of its advantages the diffusion of new ideas. The key to Silicon Valley and much innovation today is the diffusion, the combination, the integration of different sorts of knowledge and worker mobility has been a big part of this. Not just worker mobility between firms in Silicon Valley but also immigrants, circulation between different countries, university-firm partnerships and so forth.
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/06/non-compete-clauses.html#sthash.YSh2DpSU.dpuf

In California, however, the courts have consistently refused to enforce non-compete agreements. An employee who leaves one company can join a new company and start work the next day and they can do so regardless of any agreement.
Silicon Valley could not operate if non-compete agreements were enforced. Silicon Valley is a hyper-mobile workforce. Moreover, it’s precisely in the circulation of workers that Silicon Valley has one of its advantages the diffusion of new ideas. The key to Silicon Valley and much innovation today is the diffusion, the combination, the integration of different sorts of knowledge and worker mobility has been a big part of this. Not just worker mobility between firms in Silicon Valley but also immigrants, circulation between different countries, university-firm partnerships and so forth.
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/06/non-compete-clauses.html#sthash.YSh2DpSU.dpuf

In California, however, the courts have consistently refused to enforce non-compete agreements. An employee who leaves one company can join a new company and start work the next day and they can do so regardless of any agreement.
Silicon Valley could not operate if non-compete agreements were enforced. Silicon Valley is a hyper-mobile workforce. Moreover, it’s precisely in the circulation of workers that Silicon Valley has one of its advantages the diffusion of new ideas. The key to Silicon Valley and much innovation today is the diffusion, the combination, the integration of different sorts of knowledge and worker mobility has been a big part of this. Not just worker mobility between firms in Silicon Valley but also immigrants, circulation between different countries, university-firm partnerships and so forth.
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/06/non-compete-clauses.html#sthash.YSh2DpSU.dpuf

In California, however, the courts have consistently refused to enforce non-compete agreements. An employee who leaves one company can join a new company and start work the next day and they can do so regardless of any agreement.
Silicon Valley could not operate if non-compete agreements were enforced. Silicon Valley is a hyper-mobile workforce. Moreover, it’s precisely in the circulation of workers that Silicon Valley has one of its advantages the diffusion of new ideas. The key to Silicon Valley and much innovation today is the diffusion, the combination, the integration of different sorts of knowledge and worker mobility has been a big part of this. Not just worker mobility between firms in Silicon Valley but also immigrants, circulation between different countries, university-firm partnerships and so forth.
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/06/non-compete-clauses.html#sthash.YSh2DpSU.dpuf

In California, however, the courts have consistently refused to enforce non-compete agreements. An employee who leaves one company can join a new company and start work the next day and they can do so regardless of any agreement.
Silicon Valley could not operate if non-compete agreements were enforced. Silicon Valley is a hyper-mobile workforce. Moreover, it’s precisely in the circulation of workers that Silicon Valley has one of its advantages the diffusion of new ideas. The key to Silicon Valley and much innovation today is the diffusion, the combination, the integration of different sorts of knowledge and worker mobility has been a big part of this. Not just worker mobility between firms in Silicon Valley but also immigrants, circulation between different countries, university-firm partnerships and so forth.
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/06/non-compete-clauses.html#sthash.YSh2DpSU.dpuf

A Good Salon Article on College Tuition In America

Here

You should read the whole article, but here are some of the best bits

Over the three decades of the tuition spiral, by far the most forthright antagonist of the inflation-happy colleges was the Reagan-era culture warrior/education secretary William Bennett, who seemed to delight in blunt statements like this one: “Some of our colleges and universities charge what the market will bear. . . . The heart of the matter is that colleges raise costs because they can.” Were some member of the compromise-minded Obama team to talk like that today the centrist earth below Washington DC would gape in outrage and swallow them up...
Democrats today worship education, while Republicans today worship the market, neither of which faith has brought us close to a solution. The efforts of the Clinton administration, for example, were almost unbelievably feeble: With great fanfare, the Democrats streamlined the student loan process, proposed a tax cut for parents who paid for college, and—hooray—cracked down on student borrowers. (“We have tracked down defaulters and made them pay,” Bill Clinton boasted in 1997.)...

They are happy to talk about the “return on investment” when it’s a vague promise of a million bucks for anyone who pays up and goes to college; when someone actually takes them at their word and tries to measure the claim, it seems that fundamental principles are being trampled...

The Reagan administration was always hostile to universities and loved to bemoan the tuition spiral; what’s more, over the period in question, the universities themselves embraced a hyper-leftist public image that helped them distract attention from the catastrophe they have visited upon the nation’s young.

As the article suggests, the tuiton spiral has been mistakenly thought to be running out of steam before. However,  I have had more and more conversations with current and former students, parents, and others questioning whether a college degree is all it is cracked up to be.

I will say this with conviction and as someone with a degree from a fairly respectable European university: going to college is a great thing for all kinds of reasons besides improved employment prospects, but it is not worth what the American universities will charge you for it.

Report Released on 2010 BP Oil Spill

From al-Jazeera

A U.S. board's investigation into the 2010 BP oil spill concluded that a last-ditch safety device on the underwater well had multiple failures, wasn't tested properly and still poses a risk for many rigs drilling today.

The report issued Thursday by the U.S. Chemical Safety Board zeroes in on what went wrong with the blowout preventer and blames bad management and operations. They found faulty wiring in two places, a dead battery and a bent pipe in the hulking device. And that, they said, led to the dumping of 172 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico and the worst U.S. offshore oil disaster.

From the looks of it, no where does the report suggest that the government reconsider whether it should reconsider its decision from a few months ago to lift the ban of BP bidding for new federal drilling contracts (here). This really is an issue bigger than just BP. It sends a message to the whole industry that a companies safety record is of minimal importance when determining drilling access in the United States. If the government really wants to prevent these kind of disasters in the future, this seems like the opposite of the message they need to send.

Student Debt Refinancing Bill

A bill has been introduced in the Senate to permit the refinancing of student debt. In other words, the government is maybe, just maybe, considering taking a small step towards treating student debt like any other kind of debt.

Funnily enough though, I find myself in some amount of agreement with some of the criticisms that the Republicans have levied at the proposal. From al-Jazeera

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky criticized the Senate legislation – sponsored by Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. – for not addressing college costs.
"This bill doesn't make college more affordable, reduce the amount of money students will have to borrow, or do anything about the lack of jobs grads face in the Obama economy," he said in a new release.

I think the most important of these is the point about cost. Even if debt can be refinanced or defaulted (not that you can discharge student debt in bankruptcy but just imagine), people will not be able let alone willing to afford the tuition rates we see in America for very long.

Nonetheless, I hope the bill passes, but am not holding my breath.

Bloomberg View Article On Cliimate Change Adaptation in Florida

Here

Florida's state and national politicians, including Governor Rick Scott and U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, are free to question whether climate change exists. Local officials don’t have that luxury. When it floods, people call city hall.

The need for a practical response, requiring both pumping stations and political cooperation, makes South Florida ground zero (sea zero?) in the debate over climate change. Its public officials, elected and otherwise, are showing how adaptation is not only necessary but also possible.

Unfortunately, articles like this need to be published more often. It seems that the conversation about climate change has been moving away from prevention towards mitigation and adaptation. While it is unfortunate that it has come to that, I have believed for a few years that the fight to prevent climate change was lost and it is good to see the discourse start to acknowledge that so that it can move forward from there.